If you read Part 2, you will note that I was wrong about two things, first that China would not make the medal round (they did, barely), and second that Russia would (they did not, and surprisingly Australia in their place.  Other than that I feel proud of my fairly accurate predictions.  Team USA dominated (winning by a margin of 32.2 points per game) by forcing turnovers (22.8 per game) and getting on the fast break.  Other medal hopefuls, Spain, Argentina, and Lithuania, also did quite well, securing the top two seeds in each group along with Team USA.

In the quarterfinals, expect that USA, Spain, Argentina, and Lithuania win.  The best chance for an upset is China beating Lithuania for a number of reasons.  First, Lithuania does not have a player near the size of Yao Ming (nobody really does though).  Second, China has an undeniable home court advantage.

In the semifinal, the games seem less certain.  Argentina will be a good match for team USA, but they are not very deep.  Argentina is the team that defeated the Americans in the semifinals in the 2004 Athens Olympics, but it is quite clear that the Redeem team is better than the previous team.  While team USA has not faced any trouble winning games so far, a team that can protect the ball (not turn the ball over) has a very good shot at beating the Redeem team, especially since the team is not that good in the half court.  Argentina could be that team, but like i’ve said, they aren’t that deep.

The semifinals will likely be a match-up between Spain and Lithuania, which I feel Spain has the advantage.  Lithuania is good, perhaps very good, but not deep enough to contend with the likes of Spain.  If Spain does play China, it will be for a second time, the first ended in a narrow overtime victory against China.  I don’t see China winning against Spain either.

Bronze Medal Game

A bronze medal matchup between Argentina and Lithuania will be a rematch of a group-round game that was won by Lithuania in the last seconds.  Argentina has really hit stride lately, dominating their competition and cruising to victory in most games since their defeat by Lithuania.  I would be surprised, then, if Lithuania won, but to throw them a bone Lithuania did beat them in the first game, so it may not be as unlikely as I make it out to be.

Gold Medal Game

I am predicting a Gold Medal Game match-up between Team USA  and Spain.  Originally in Part 2, I predicted Spain to win this match-up.  I still believe Spain can win, but as I’ve said, their ability to win will be dependent upon limiting their own turnovers.  Basketball is a game decided by which team can force the tempo that they are most comfortable with.  A half court game favors Spain, while an open, uptempo game favors Team USA, and turnovers are the key to determining the tempo.