In the quarterfinals, expect that USA, Spain, Argentina, and Lithuania win.  The best chance for an upset is China beating Lithuania for a number of reasons.  First, Lithuania does not have a player near the size of Yao Ming (nobody really does though).  Second, China has an undeniable home court advantage.

In the semifinal, the games seem less certain.  Argentina will be a good match for team USA, but they are not very deep.  Argentina is the team that defeated the Americans in the semifinals in the 2004 Athens Olympics, but it is quite clear that the Redeem team is better than the previous team.  While team USA has not faced any trouble winning games so far, a team that can protect the ball (not turn the ball over) has a very good shot at beating the Redeem team, especially since the team is not that good in the half court.  Argentina could be that team, but like i’ve said, they aren’t that deep.

The semifinals will likely be a match-up between Spain and Lithuania, which I feel Spain has the advantage.  Lithuania is good, perhaps very good, but not deep enough to contend with the likes of Spain.  If Spain does play China, it will be for a second time, the first ended in a narrow overtime victory against China.  I don’t see China winning against Spain either.

Bronze Medal Game

A bronze medal matchup between Argentina and Lithuania will be a rematch of a group-round game that was won by Lithuania in the last seconds.  Argentina has really hit stride lately, dominating their competition and cruising to victory in most games since their defeat by Lithuania.  I would be surprised, then, if Lithuania won, but to throw them a bone Lithuania did beat them in the first game, so it may not be as unlikely as I make it out to be.

Gold Medal Game

I am predicting a Gold Medal Game match-up between Team USA  and Spain.  Originally in Part 2, I predicted Spain to win this match-up.  I still believe Spain can win, but as I’ve said, their ability to win will be dependent upon limiting their own turnovers.  Basketball is a game decided by which team can force the tempo that they are most comfortable with.  A half court game favors Spain, while an open, uptempo game favors Team USA, and turnovers are the key to determining the tempo.

]]> http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/2008/08/19/2008-beijing-olympics-part-3-basketball-medal-round/feed/ 1 aarongavila http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/2008/08/11/2008-beijing-olympics-part-2-basketball/ http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/2008/08/11/2008-beijing-olympics-part-2-basketball/#comments Mon, 11 Aug 2008 06:34:43 +0000 aarongavila http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/?p=56 ]]> The years of American dominance are over, they may one day come back, but right now they are over.  In the words of TS Elliot this came not with a bang, but a whimper.  Sixteen years since professional basketball players created the first Dream Team in 1992 games in Barcelona, America has fielded the first Redeem Team, a team once again comprised of America’s most talented, but with a goal of returning to their former glory.

Like I said though, this change did not happen overnight.  This was the action of slow change, change America refuses to believe in.  Domination by the original Dream Team made American basketball arrogant, giving them expectations of routing every opponent.  In the 1992 Barcelona Olympic Games, America’s average margin of victory was a very impressive 43.8 points per game (the team never used a timeout either).  By the 2000 Olympic games in Sydney, this number was cut in half.

The 2000 Olympics is where opposing countries were no longer fearful of USA basketball.  Most memorably, America’s hope of winning gold was almost ended when Lithuania’s Sarunas Jasikevicius game winning three-point shot grazed the rim in the semi-final round.  The US then went on to win unimpressively against France in the Gold Medal game (though Vince Carter did jump over a seven footer, a dunk that is called by some the best in history, I disagree).  The 2000 Sydney Olympics is the last time Team USA won the Gold Medal in world competition.

The 2004 Athens Olympics was the not the first time Team USA did not win a Gold Medal in world competition (in the 2002 World Championships, Team USA finished 6th), but it certainly the first time USA Basketball woke up to the reality that the rest of the world has caught up.  Team USA’s average margin of victory was 4.6 points per game, one-tenth of just 12 years prior, and fell in the a semifinal game against Argentina, against NBA players such as Manu Ginobili, Andres Nocioni, and Carlos Delfino.

Team USA has since responded with its best players in the 2006 World Championships, but once again fell short and took third losing to Greece.  USA Basketball tinkered with their team again and gave us the Redeem Team, consisting of America’s best basketball players, including Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul.  If this team cannot win gold, USA Basketball may have to accept for good that a Gold Medal in Basketball is nothing to be expected.

The biggest reason for America’s diminished dominance in basketball has been that competition has gotten much, much better, and this can be seen domestically in the NBA.  Currently almost 20 percent of the NBA is represented by foreign-born players, three of the last four NBA MVP winners were international, and seemingly almost every summer a high-profile foreign born player leaves his country to come play in the NBA.

Olympic Format

In the 2008 Olympics there are 12 teams separated into two six-team groups.  In Group A

• Russia (Andrei Kirilenko, JR Holden, Victor Khryapa)
• Croatia (Roko Ukic – Raptors 2005 draft pick, Zoran Planinic – former Net)
• Lithuania (Sarunas Jasikevicius, Lenas Kleiza – best international player in the NBA nobody talks about)
• Argentina (Manu Ginobili, Carlos Delfino, Andres Nocioni)
• Australia (Andrew Bogut)
• Iran (HAH!!!)

In Group B…

• USA (Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Dwayne Wade, Lebron James)
• Germany (Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Kaman)
• Spain (Pau Gasol, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio – 17 year old phenom, top-5 pick next season)
• Greece (Vasileios Spanoulis, played for the Rockets for a little bit)
• Angola (HAH!!!)
• China (Yao Ming, Yi Jianlian)

From each group four teams advance to create an eight-team playoff.  Teams are seeded by their records during group play.  You may see that teams might run up the score during the group play, this should be expected since one of the tiebreakers is points scored.  So as a matter of seeding, this is important for later stages of the tournament.  During the eight team playoff, the winners advance and the losers are eliminated.  The lone exception is that after the semifinal round the two losers play each other for the bronze medal.

Predictions

So what should you expect if not American dominance?  Here I break down the teams into four teirs: Bad Teams, One-star Wonders, Good (not good enough), and Medal Contenders.

Bad Teams – Bad teams are teams devoid of any quality basketball talent.  These teams often lack size (Angola has no player taller than 6’8″), or skill (Iran, Australia), or both (Angola). These teams will not get out of the group round.

• Angola – The team is undersized and does not have a relevant players in terms of international competition.  Even teams that have no chance at gaining a medal (Germany, for example), have an elite basketball player (Dirk Nowitzki, to keep with the Germany example).  Angola is also undersized, yet much of their competition is deep in the front court.
• Iran – This team like Angola has no skill to speak of.  A month ago they played exhibition games against an NBA Development League team and was soundly beaten.  I hate  to see what happens when this team runs into event he most average of international competition.
• Australia – They are big, but like Iran they really just are not good.  Though Andrew Bogut is an NBA player (a starter at that), he is really more of a complementary role player rather than a goto post presence.

One-star Wonders – A one-star wonder is a team that has an elite NBA or International player, but does not have the depth to compete with the big-dogs in international competition.  These teams are more than capable of competing with the elite teams for a quarter or even a half, but to compete for a full game is a stretch.  One of these teams will not make it out of the group round (my guess is China).

• China – This is probably depressing news for the host team, but other than Yao Ming (not even 100 percent) and Yi Jianlian, they don’t have another even average player on the roster.  They just can’t compete for a full game and with an injured Yao Ming, they are really anything but a good team.
• Germany – Dirk Nowitzki is probably the best European player to ever grace the game.  He deservedly won MVP in 2007 and is plenty capable of taking over a game.  Germany also has Chris Kaman (They some how managed to turn him into a German citizen in a month, though he admittedly had never been to Germany prior to becoming a citizen) and Demond Greene (solid international guard).  Yet Germany does not have a deep enough team to compete with the class of the competition.  Germany also leaves alot to to be desired in the backcourt.  Other than Demond Greene, their backcourt is relatively poor.

Good (but not good enough) – These teams are teams with depth, but void of any serious elite talent to match with the elite teams.  Often these teams are lead by former NBA players that either washed out of the league or took the money and left (Croatia and Greece).  The rest of these teams are anchored by solid NBA role players (Russia and Lithuania), but lack elite talent to compete at the higher level.  These teams have a very outside chance at getting a medal, but if they get hot and confident they can surprise even the elite teams.

• Russia – They have Andrei Kirilenko (A good all-around player), and JR Holden (a solid international guard), but mostly average talent making up the rest of the roster.  They are certainly capable of winning games (they won Eurobasket 2007 against the elites of the continent), but it is highly unlikely that they are able to compete for a medal since they just lack elite talent.
• Croatia – This team is anchored by Roko Ukic (new Toronto Raptors guard slated to back-up Calderon this upcoming season) and Zoran Planinic (Solid Euro talent that washed out of the NBA a couple years ago).  They have a great shooting touch, and can run some of the best pick-and-roll offense out there.  They don’t have any elite talent, but if they get hot from outside they can beat anybody.
• Greece – This team is the same as Croatia and has a great shooting touch and solid guard play.  Greece is the team that beat team USA in the 2006 World Championships, and like Croatia is capable of beating anybody on their good days.
• Lithuania – A team lead by Sarunas Jasikevicius, Darius Songalia, and Lenas Kleiza and is the best mix of both talent and the well-oiled machines like Greece and Croatia.  This team has the best chance to win a medal that isn’t a medal contender, because like the others, on their best days they can play with the best of them.

Medal Contenders – These are the teams that will likely win a medal.  These teams have the elite talent necessary to win but are also deep enough to stay steady throughout the game.  These teams are not without weakness though.  The ability of these teams to win will be determined by their ability to force a particular style of play.

• USA – They have the deepest and most athletic roster in the tournament.  If USA is going to win, they will have to do two things well: force turnovers and make open jumpshots.  I find it unlikely that the latter will happen with any consistency (you don’t even need to guard Kidd when he doesn’t have the ball), but if Team USA can force turnovers and get fastbreak opportunities, they have the ability to blow games wide open.
• Spain – Spain has the second deepest team in the tournament, and has the elite talent necessary to win the Gold Medal.  To be honest, if they can force a half court game, they are going to be very difficult to beat.  They have great shooters, great guard play, great size up front, and more importantly they are confident they can win.
• Argentina – This is the defending champion.  Manu Ginobili is arguably the best individual player not on Team USA (and I’d argue that when healthy he’d start on Team USA).  Ginobili is not 100 percent, and is still recovering from the ankle injury he suffered during the playoffs.  Ginobili is surrounded by solid defensive and complementary offensive players.  Defensively Carlos Delfino, Fabricio Oberto, and Andres Nocioni can take tough defensive assignments, and provide a solid complement for Ginobili.  The weakness for Argentina is that they are so dependent on Ginobili’s offense to win, and he can be at times streaky.

Final Prediction

• Gold Medal – Spain
• Silver Medal – USA
• Bronze Medal – Argentina

Yet this American finds that the Olympics are possibly one of the most important sporting events.  It is an event that Americans should not sleep on.  First, it is a geography test.  Ask the average American, and they could probably not tell you where Swaziland is, let alone Iraq.  Americans may have slept through their 7th grade geography class, but to watch the Olympics, it is almost necessary to know something about these countries.

Second, it is a reality check.  America is a great country for many reasons, but seems to be a country that has needed a good kick in the balls.  Exhitibit 1, Americas mens basketball team’s failure to win Gold in any world competition since 2000.  Some would accept that there are other talented basketball teams in the world, and that we have to now earn the Gold with the new competition.  Yet American’s still feel entitled in this sport, so much that the current men’s basketball team has been called the the Redeem Team, as if they’ve already redeemed themseves.

The Olympics though could be so much more.  First, the Olympics is the one event where all nations get together and resolve their squabbles over kids games.  Imagine if Russia and Georgia’s recent squabble could be decided over an equestrian contest or a marathon race.  Israel and Palestine could resolve their territorial dispute.  To the winner goes the spoils and maybe a medal…

Second, we could have games of intelligence.  How about a math contest?  How about a chess match?  These events would not have to be policed by the World Anti-Doping Agency, and like other sports would give countries a good metric by which to compare.  Instead of handing your kid a basketball when he grows up, why don’t you hand him a protractor and a pocket protector.  When your kid is holding a six-figure salary and a Gold medal, he’ll thank you.

Notice any really perplexing search engine terms in the screen shot?  Checking the search engine terms that lead to my blog this afternoon, the above screenshot is what I found.  I’m here to let you in on one of the greatest secrets in the music industry, Dave Matthews IS the lead singer of the Dave Matthews Band.

The economic stimulus checks that arrived in American mailboxes in recent weeks were apparently even more stimulating than the government intended.  According to people who get paid to monitor such things, porn Web sites experienced an upswing in sales in the weeks after people received their economic stimulus checks.

“Many of the sites we surveyed have reported 20-30% growth in membership rates since mid-May when the checks were first sent out, and typically the summer is a slow period for this market,” Kirk Mishkin, Head Research Consultant for the Adult Internet Research Marketing Company, said.

The checks, in amounts of up to $600 for individuals and 1,200 for (apparently pretty kinky) couples, were intended to help strengthen the flagging economy; aiding flagging libidos is just a sexy bonus.

Jillian Fox, spokeswoman for LSG Models, says, “Getting more people to buy porn was probably the last thing Bush had on his mind when he came up with his stimulus package, but we’ll take it.”

I disagree with Jillian Fox, this is exactly the sort of economic “stimulation” that the Federal government was hoping for when they pushed this legislation.  To put it more politically correct; maybe they were not hoping that some would pay for pornography, but they were hoping those that pushed the economic stimulus legislation were hoping that American’s would spend their checks in a way that kept the money within the United States.

An economic stimulus package is no good if you get a check from the government (this was really loaned to you, oh by the way, paid for by China and a weaker dollar), and spend it on a product made in a foreign country.  Money spent within an economy, will be spent again within the economy (minus some leakages like taxes).  Money spent within the porn industry (provided its American), will go towards paying wages for those who provide its “services.”  That money then will be spent buying food, clothing, etc.  In short, stimulating the economy.  Where as the middle-income who takes their economic stimulus check and buys a TV from Best Buy.  Best Buy takes that money and pays off their employees (money spent within the economy) and suppliers (their largest costs are incurred here, and many of these suppliers base their operations in foreign countries), much of which represents a leakage outside of the economy.

When the economic stimulus legislation passed, its proponents estimated that there would be a 500 percent benefit to the American economy (IE, $100 million in stimulus checks would lead to $500 million in benefits to the American economy).  Yet with leakages persistent, more realistic estimates argued that the actual economic stimulus would be much smaller.

Last Wednesday, I went to a Dave Matthews Band at the Ford Amphitheater in Tampa, FL.  From my experience, you either really like the Dave Matthews Band or you don’t.  There are a few in the middle, but those, in my opinion, are a rare find.  I’ve been to four shows myself, and I have to say this was, by far, the most unique and best of them.

This concert was different in many ways.  First, since Butch Taylor, former pianist and back-up vocals, left the band, guitarist Tim Reynolds, has stepped in.  This has changed the bands sound in a lot of respects.  First, the negative, songs where Butch really shined, like Bartender, with strong outros, are no more.  Also, Butch was more of a complementary player to the band than Tim.  Butch on the piano really filled nicely in many songs and rarely, if ever, stole the spotlight.  Tim Reynolds, on the other hand, will and does steal the show in many respects, and on many songs, drowned out Boyd Tinsley, a sound that makes the band unique.  That said, Tim Reynolds allows the band to excel in songs such as Cornbread, So Damn Lucky, and many covers.  Tim gives the band the band a more traditional rock feel, while not as unique, still gives the band a great sound.

Second, since LeRoi Moore got injured in an ATV accident, Jeff Coffin, Sax player of Bela Fleck and Fleckstones (clearly he is a Fleckstone, cause he’s not Bela Fleck).  Jeff Coffin, like LeRoi Moore, is a stellar sax player, and gave many great solos.

The set list was almost a dream come true as well.  While the set list didn’t include personal favorites such as Bartender and Halloween, it included great songs from across the board, even So Damn Lucky, a song from Dave’s solo release, Some Devil, and yet to be released tracks, like Cornbread, Sugar Will, and Eh hee.

1. Don’t Drink the Water
2. Seek Up
3. So Damn Lucky**
4. The Song that Jane Likes
5. Eh Hee** – Also from about a year ago, with The Roots.
6. #27
7. Sugar Will – A song that had not been played since October of 2004.
8. Cornbread**
9. Sledgehammer** – a cover of the Peter Gabriel (former lead singer of Genesis) hit
10. Grey Street**
11. Out of My Hands (for now) – Dave on the piano, rare enough.
12. Smooth Rider
13. Louisiana Bayou
14. #41 – some video from Jeff Coffin’s sax solo.
15. Anyone Seen the Bridge -> Too Much – ASTB, has a nice Sprach Zarathustra intro by the brass.
16. Two Step – Intro, Chorus and Bridge after first Verse, Carter’s drum solo at the end of the song
17. Ants Marching*

* = Encore

** = Video from the show in Rothbury, MI (7/5/08).  The video from this concert was professionally done, and probably more enjoyable than some of the other stuff out there.

Cookie Monster

]]> http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/2008/07/05/this-week-in-weirdness-and-lol/feed/ 0 aarongavila http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/2008/06/25/kobe-shaq-feudagain/ http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/2008/06/25/kobe-shaq-feudagain/#comments Wed, 25 Jun 2008 03:40:28 +0000 aarongavila http://aarongavila.wordpress.com/?p=8 ]]> Everyone remembers the days of Kobe and Shaq winning three NBA championships in a row.  Everyone remembers the messy break-up, and now everyone, including Shaq, has witnessed Kobe’s failure to win a championship again, but this time without Shaq.  Shaq comments via Freestyle Rap.

Disclaimer: There are curse words in the video.  If this offends you, you are not advised to click here.

P.S. to Shaq.  When is the “sun going to rise in Pheonix?”  Steve Nash needs a tan.

McKenzie did a fair amount of real-world research on the popcorn front, and his most important finding (as far as I’m concerned) is that if you’re in a cinema which gives you a choice between buying a medium bag of popcorn and a large tub of popcorn, there’s a greater-than-50% chance that the medium bag will actually contain more popcorn than the large tub.

Here is the original article.