Why get along, it pays not to.

This is an abstract from a recently written paper on the economic incentives/payoffs of fighting in hockey. The link to the paper is below.

Disclaimer: It’s pretty dry, but proof that economics applies to everything.

The level of violence in the National Hockey League (NHL) reached its highest point in 1987 and has reduced somewhat since then, although to levels much larger than before the first team expansions in 1967. Using publicly available information from several databases 1996–2007, the incentives for violence in North American ice hockey are analyzed. We examine the role of penalty minutes and more specifically, fighting, during the regular season in determining wages for professional hockey players and team-level success indicators. There are substantial returns paid not only to goal scoring skills but also to fighting ability, helping teams move higher in the playoffs and showing up as positive wage premia for otherwise observed low-skill wing players. These estimated per-fight premia, depending on fight success ($10,000 to $18,000), are even higher than those for an additional point made. By introducing a “fight fine” of twice the maximum potential gain ($36,000) and adding this amount to salaries paid for the team salary cap (fines would be 6.7% of the team salary cap or the average wage of 2 players), then all involved would have either little or no incentives to allow fighting to continue.

NBA Finals Preview: LA Lakers vs. Boston Celtics

It probably took a while for NBA traditionalists to get over their NBA-gasm (insert: Pleasurable Moan Here). Anyone old enough remembers the glory days of the NBA, when Magic and Bird squared off in the NBA Finals, year-after-year. The history goes back farther than that too, as a franchise the Lakers have made it to the NBA Finals for the 29th time this season (six times as the Minneapolis Lakers). The Celtics have made it to the NBA Finals for their 20th time this season (first since 1986). If you are doing the math, and you aren’t if I had to guess (but who is guessing? Not I), both teams have made it a combined 49 times, while the rest of the league has made it to the Finals a combined 75 times.

Great as it is to see them back again, these aren’t the teams your dad remembers. The Lakers are a team built around and NBA MVP Kobe Bryant accompanied by two very underrated players (though well-paid), Pau Gasol (donated) and Lamar Odom. The Celtics are a team built around Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, and former NBA Star, Ray Allen (he’s good, but he used to be great, not anymore). That is really where the similarities end.

Where their differences begin is on the bench. Not only younger, the Lakers possess a deep bench capable of keeping the team going even when their stars are out. Ronny Turiaf, will bring tough defense and good rebounding (best beard in the series too), while Sasha Vujacic can hit outside shots and handle the ball like a point guard, able to take a lot of defensive pressure off of Kobe. Luke Walton (son of Bill Walton) is quietly one of the best passers in the league, and an underrated defender, and Jordan Farmar (quietly possesses a 42 inch vertical leap, but for whatever reason does not take advantage of it) brings a good all-around game.

The Celtics on the other hand, are reliant really on two bench players, James Posey (has a tattoo that reads Po-Z), who brings tough defense and a decent jumpshot, and Sam Cassell (played his college ball at FSU, back when we were good at basketball) who brings experience and a scoring threat.

How the Celtics can Win

For the Celtics to win, Paul Pierce has to match Kobe’s offensive performance. Along with that, the Celtics are going to need Garnett to be dominant, but particularly on the defensive end. The Celtics will not win a shoot-out with the Lakers, the Lakers have too many scoring threats, while the Celtics have too few scoring threats of their own.

How the Lakers can Win

For the Lakers to win, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol will have to step up as scoring threats. Everyone knows they are both great passers and good rebounders, but if they are aggressive offensively, they will be very difficult to stop. All this assumes that Kobe Bryant, continues to play as well as he has all post season, and I see no reason to think otherwise.

My Prediction and Final Comments

The Lakers will win in six games. I’ve been wrong before, but I feel pretty confident about this one. The Lakers have superior coaching, fresher legs, and a deeper team. I’ll post again after each game to give my analysis.

Flabbergastnationness

Part of Speech: Noun

Definition: The state of being flabergasted or overcome with astonishment

Etymology:  When – Ephesians Bible Study, February sometime.  A derivation of Flabbergasted.

Use in a Sentence:  As Billy’s car burst into flames, a feeling of Flabbergastnationess overcame Luke.